TransformTO Technical Scenario Modelling
In 2016, the City began a technical modelling exercise to assess how greenhouse gas emissions will change over time in key sectors – buildings, transportation, waste, energy sources, land use – given current federal, provincial and municipal policies and programs.
TransformTO technical modelling was used to measure and identify the potential impact of various combinations of emission reduction strategies and actions, with the goal of identifying the best and most effective strategies to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
The strategies and actions that were modelled were identified through two main sources – input provided by the community through an online TransformTO survey done in 2016 and community conversation events, and a formal review of best practices of strategies being implemented in cities around the world.
The Technical Backgrounder provides an overview of the technical modelling process, assumptions and methods.
The Business-As-Planned modelling results describe Toronto’s future greenhouse gas emissions based on all current municipal, provincial and federal programs, plans and regulations.
This Report identifies the results of a technical modelling process to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Toronto to net zero by 2050, or sooner.
The Co-benefits and Co-harms Report examines how certain greenhouse gas reduction actions drive other beneficial outcomes. The report reviews three main areas of potential synergies: economic prosperity, health, and social equity.
A group of thirty-seven community leaders, academics, City staff and subject-matter experts was convened to provide input on the TransformTO initiative and technical scenario modelling. The group membership was carefully selected to include a diverse representation from multiple perspectives (energy, environment, economy, health, equity and social justice). Led by the Technical Modelling Consultants (SSG and WhatIf? Technologies), the Modelling Advisory Group members are consulted on the criteria, limitations and approach to the technical modelling.
Read the Terms of Reference for the Modelling Advisory Group.